Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are fought: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
