A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Both authors two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses something to learn from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
